بررسی استفاده از شبیه‌سازی مدل‌های آب و هوایی در پیش‌بینی بارش‌های طراحی به جای برونداد مدل‌های تغییر اقلیم (مطالعه موردی: تهران، ایستگاه مهرآباد)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی (ره).

2 استاد دانشگاه بینالمللی امام خمینی (ره)، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، گروه مهندسی آب، قزوین، ایران.

چکیده

با توجه به گرم شدن زمین و بروز پدیده تغییر اقلیم و اثر آن بر متغیرهای هواشناسی بخصوص بارش­های حدی که پارامتر اساسی در طراحی­ زیرساخت‌­های شهری و مدیریت منابع آب است، مطالعات در این حوزه از اهمیت بسیار زیادی برخوردار است. در حال حاضر، پیش‌­بینی­ بارش‌های آینده با استفاده از برونداد مدل­های تغییر اقلیم امکان‌پذیر می­باشد که با مشکلات عدیده­ای من‌جمله عدم دسترسی آسان، بزرگ مقیاس بودن و نیاز به ریزمقیاس‌نمایی مکانی و زمانی، افزایش خطا و تحمیل ریسک بالا به سازه‌های مدیریت سیل شهری، روبرو می­‌باشند. لذا، بکارگیری مدل تولید داده آب و هوایی که با استفاده از داده‌های مشاهداتی و ثبت شده توانایی مدل­‌های اقلیمی در شبیه­‌سازی­ بارش­‌های آینده را داشته باشد، مورد توجه ایــن پــژوهش قــرار گـــرفته است. در مطالعه حاضر، مدل ناپارامتری
K-NN WG بکار گرفته شد که با استفاده از دو مکانیزم برزدن و ایجاد آشفتگی اقدام به تولید داده­‌هایی خارج از محدوده مشاهداتی می‌نماید. در این مدل از داده­‌های بارش کوتاه‌‎مدت مشاهداتی ایستگاه مهرآباد با تداوم­‌های 10 دقیقه تا 3 ساعت برای پیش‌­بینی بارش کوتاه‌مدت در آینده استفاده شد و نتایج آن با خروجی مدل اقلیمی منطقه‌­ای PRECIS برای سال­‌های 2100 -2070 تحت سناریوهای انتشار A2 و B2 مقایسه گردید. نتایج، اولاً نشان‌دهنده افزایش شدت­ بارش­‌های آینده نسبت به حال و ثانیاً اثبات کننده‌ توان‌مندی مدل تولید داده آب و هوایی مورد استفاده در پژوهش در مقایسه با برونداد مدل منطقه‌­ای PRECIS می‌­باشد. این نتایج با استفاده از آزمون‌های آماری مناسب ارزیابی شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Use of Weather Generator Models Simulation Instead of the Output of Climate Change Models in Predicting Design Precipitation (Case study: Tehran, Mehrabad Station)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Roya Habibnejad 1
  • Alireza Shokoohi 2
1 M.Sc. Graduate Student, Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
2 Professor, Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Due to global warming and the occurrence of climate change and its effect on meteorological variables, especially rainfall, which is a key parameter in urban infrastructure design and water resources management, studies in this area are very important. It is now possible to predict future rainfall using the output of climate change models; this is however accompanied by many problems including lack of easy access, being large scale and the need for spatial and temporal micro scaling, increasing error, and imposing risk to urban flood management structures. Therefore, the application of a weather generator model with the ability of climatic models in simulating future precipitation using observational and recorded data has been considered in this research. In the present study, the non-parametric K-NN WG model was used which produces data outside the observational range by using two mechanisms of shuffling and perturbing. In this model, observational short-term precipitation data of Mehrabad station with a time duration of 10 minutes to 3 hours were used to predict short-term precipitation in the future. The results were compared with the output of the PRECIS regional climate model for the years 2070-2100 under emission scenarios A2 and B2. The results showed an increase in the intensity of future precipitation compared to the present time and moreover proved the capability of the WG model used in the study compared to the output of the PRECIS regional model. These results were evaluated using appropriate statistical tests.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Design Storm
  • climate change
  • WG model
  • Perturbation
  • PRECIS
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