تحلیل مالی پروژه آبرسانی از رودخانه شاهرود به دشت قزوین و ارزیابی آثار اقتصادی بالقوه آن در زیربخش کشاورزی حوضه مقصد

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

طی سال­های اخیر یکی از اقداماتی که برای مقابله با معضل کم‌آبی مورد توجه قرارگرفته، اجرای طرح‌های انتقال آب بین حوضه‌ای است. این کار که عمدتاً جهت تأمین منابع آب موردنیاز در مناطق پایین­‌دست صورت می­‌گیرد، می­‌تواند بر اقتصاد حوضه‌­های مقصد اثرگذار باشد. از این رو، در این مطالعه اثرات اقتصادی بالقوه طرح آب‌رسانی از رودخانه شاهرود به دشت قزوین ارزیابی شد. برای تحقق این هدف، ابتدا با استفاده از روش نسبت هزینه- فایده (CBR)، اجرایی‌­شدن این طرح به لحاظ صرفه اقتصادی و سودمندی مالی ارزیابی گردید و سپس، با به­‌کارگیری رویکرد مدل­‌سازی برنامه‌­ریزی ریاضی اثباتی (PMP) اثرات و پیامدهای اجرایی شدن این طرح در حوضه مقصد تحلیل شد. داده‌­ها و اطلاعات موردنیاز مربوط به سال زراعی 98-1397 می‌­باشند. نتایج نشان داد که اجرای طرح انتقال آب به دشت قزوین از طریق رودخانه شاهرود برای نرخ­های تنزیل پنج تا 20 درصد توجیه اقتصادی دارد. ارزش اقتصادی هر مترمکعب آب آبیاری معادل با 3720 ریال برآورد شد و نتایج حاصل از مدل اقتصادی نشان داد که پس از اجرای طرح آبرسانی به دشت قزوین، سطح زیرکشت محصولات با صرفه اقتصادی بالاتر مانند چغندرقند، گوجه‌فرنگی، ذرت دانه‌­ای و یونجه افزایش یافته و سطح زیرکشت گندم آبی، جو آبی و کلزا کاهش یافته است. مجموع سود ناخالص کشاورزان نیز پس از اجرای طرح انتقال آب 6/34 تا 11/5 درصد افزایش یافته است. در پایان، با توجه به اثرات مثبت حاصل از اجرای طرح آبرسانی به دشت قزوین، جهت پایداری و صیانت از منابع آبی این منطقه، اصلاح نظام قیمت­‌گذاری آب آبیاری به مسئولین و نهادهای موظف و توسعه و تداوم کشت محصولات با صرفه اقتصادی بالاتر در الگوی زراعی به کشاورزان پیشنهاد شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Financial Analysis of the Qazvin Plain Water Supply Project from Shahroud River and Assessing its Potential Economic Impacts in Agricultural Sub-division of the Destination Basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abolfazl Mahmodi 1
  • Abozar Parhizkari 2
1 Associate Professor in Agricultural Economics, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Ph.D. Student of Agricultural Economics, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

In recent years, inter-basin water transfer projects are one of the measures taken into consideration for the problem of water shortage in some parts of the country. Providing the required water resources for the downstream areas using such projects can affect the economy of the destination basin. In this study, the economic and social impacts on the destination basin are evaluated for the water supply project conveying water from Shahroud River to Qazvin plain. To achieve this goal, first using the cost-benefit ratio (CBR) method, the project was evaluated in terms of economical and financial profitability. Then, using the positive mathematical programming (PMP) method, the effects and consequences of this plan in the destination basin were analyzed. Data and information required for this study are related to crop years 2016-2017. The proposed planning model was solved in GAMS software. The results showed that the transfer of water from Shahrood river to Qazvin plain is economicaly feasible for discount rates of 5 to 20 percent. The economic value of each cubic meter of irrigation water is estimated as 3720 rials. The results of the economic model showed that after implementation of the water supply plan, the area under cultivation for profitable products such as sugar beet, tomatoes, corn, and alfalfa is increased and cultivated area of irrigated wheat, irrigated barley and canola is reduced. Also the total farmers’ gross profit increases is estimated as 6.34 to 11.5 percent after the implementation of the water transfer plan. Finally, considering the positive effects of implementing the water supply project, irrigation water pricing reform is recommended to the authorities and institutions in charge and development and continuation of cultivation of profitable products is recommended to farmers.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Inter-basin water transfer
  • Positive Mathematical Programming
  • Water Demand
  • Cost-benefit analysis
  • Qazvin plain
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