ارزیابی ظرفیت برد منابع آب حوضه های آبریز با استفاده از رویکرد ترکیبی شبیه سازی و ارزیابی مبتنی بر شاخص؛ مطالعه موردی: حوضه آبریز زرینه رود

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

3 استادیار، گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی و آمایش سرزمین، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

در سال­های اخیر به دلیل تخریب شدید محیط­زیست در سراسر جهان، بررسی تأثیر فعالیت‌های انسانی بر محیط­زیست و همچنین توسعه هماهنگ سیستم­های اجتماعی- اقتصادی با یک محیط­زیست پایدار، کانون توجهات قرار گرفته است. روش­های مختلفی، جهت ارزیابی تأثیرات این فعالیت­ها بر محیط­زیست و شبیه­­سازی سیستم جفت شده انسانی- طبیعی توسعه داده شده است. یکی از این روش­ها، "ظرفیت برد منابع آب1" است که با توسعه مفهوم "ظرفیت برد2" در علم مدیریت منابع آب ایجاد شده است. این پژوهش از این مفهوم جهت ارزیابی مدیریت منابع آب استفاده کرده است؛ و با توسعه روش­های قبلی و با تلفیق روش شبیه­سازی، روش ارزیابی مبتنی­بر شاخص و عامل تعیین کننده فشار- پشتیبانی چارچوب جدیدی را جهت ارزیابی ظرفیت برد منابع آب ایجاد کرده است. همچنین رویکردی جهت ارزیابی ظرفیت برد اتخاذ شده است که برخی از چالش­های موجود در این زمینه مانند عدم توجه به وضعیت سلامت محیط­زیست و امکان تبادل­پذیری بین شاخص­ها را برطرف می­کند. رویکرد اتخاذ شده و چارچوب ایجاد شده جهت ارزیابی ظرفیت برد منابع آب در حوضه آبریز زرینه­رود و در دوره 2015-1987 به کار برده شد. با توجه به روند تغییرات شاخص­های ارزیابی و ارائه تحلیل­های بهتر، دوره مورد بررسی، به سه دوره، دوره اول (1999- 1987)، دوره دوم (2006-2000) و دوره سوم (2015- 2007) تقسیم­ شد. ارزیابی­ها و تحلیل­ها هم به صورت سالانه و هم به صورت دوره­ای انجام شد. نتایج به دست آمده حاکی از این است که بارگذاری بر منابع آب فقط در دوره اول در محدوده ظرفیت برد منابع آب بوده و در دوره­های دوم و سوم، منابع آب بیش از حد بارگذاری شده­ است. براساس استانداردهای ارزیابی، ظرفیت برد منابع آب و وضعیت سلامت محیط­زیست در هر دوره نسبت به دوره قبل یک سطح پایین­تر آمده و در دوره سوم به پایین­ترین سطح ممکن رسیده است. بررسی فشار- پشتیبانی منابع آب بیانگر این است که در هر دوره نسبت به دوره قبل فشار وارد بر منابع آب افزایش و توانایی پشتیبانی منابع آب کاهش یافته است. این اوامر بیانگر این است که سیاست­های اعمال شده در حوضه، توسعه سریع اقتصادی را دنبال کرده­اند و هیچ توجهی به توانایی پشتیبانی منابع آب نداشته­اند. این سیاست­ها نه تنها به بهبود وضعیت حوضه کمک نکرده بلکه شرایط آن را به مراتب بدتر کرده­اند. بنابراین لازم است که به طور کلی در سیاست­های اعمال شده تجدید نظر شود و هرچه سریع­تر سیاست­های لازم در جهت بهبود ظرفیت برد منابع آب اتخاذ شود. از آنجا که نتایج به دست آمده انطباق و همخوانی بسیار خوبی با واقعیت­های منطقه و بیان کارآیی سیاست­های اعمال شده داشته­اند لذا می­تواند جهت بررسی سیاست­ها در سایر موارد مشابه مورد استفاده قرار گیرد. به‌علاوه چارچوب ایجاد شده امکان ارزیابی سناریوها و پیش­بینی شرایط آینده را فراهم می­کند. این چارچوب همچنین می­تواند تأثیر سیاست­های مختلف را بر منابع آب، جامعه، اقتصاد و محیط­زیست حوضه ارزیابی کند و بستر مطمئنی را برای تحقیقات آینده ایجاد کرده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of Water Resources Carrying Capacity of the River Basins Using the Simulation Approach and Index-Based Evaluation Method; Case Study: Zarrineh-Roud Basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamid Mohammadi Sedaran 1
  • Majid Delavar 2
  • Mohammadreza Shahbazbegian 3
1 Master Student, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Geography-Spatial planning, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The study of impacts of human activities on the environment and the development of socio-economic systems compliant with a sustainable environment has became the center of attention in recent years due to the severe environmental destruction worldwide. Various methods have been developed to evaluate the effects of these activities on the environment and to simulate the coupling human-natural system. One of these methods is "Carrying capacity of water resources", which has been developed in the science of water resources management based on the concept of "Carrying capacity". This research applied this concept to evaluate water resources management and proposed a new framework for assessing the carrying capacity of water resources by developing previous methods, and by combining simulation, indicator-based evaluation and pressure-support factor. The research used a new approach for the carrying capacity evaluation which eliminated some challenges such as ignoring the environmental health status as well as the possibility of interchangeability between indicators. The proposed framework and approach were used for the water resources carrying capacity evaluation in the Zarrineh-roud River basin area, Iran, in the period of 1987 to 2015. The study period (1987-2015) was divided into three smaller periods; first (1987-1999), second (2000-2006) and third (2007-2015), to have proper annual and periodic analyses based on changes in evaluation indicators. The results showed that loading on water resources is in the range of water resources carrying capacity only in the first period and water resources are overloaded in the second and third periods. According to the evaluation standards, the carrying capacity of water resources and the environment health status had decreased one level in each period compared to the previous period, and eventually reached the lowest possible level in the third period. The analysis of pressure-support in water resources indicated that the pressure on water resources has increased and the ability to support water resources has decreased in each period compared to the previous period. These outcomes indicated that implemented policies in the basin have pursue rapid economic developments and have paid no attention to the ability to support water resources. Such policies did not improve the basin condition and made it much worse. Therefore, it is necessary to review the implemented policies and adopt the necessary policies as soon as possible to improve the carrying capacity of water resources. Since the results have well conformity with the realities of the basin and express the effectiveness of the implemented policies, the proposed framework can be used to review the implemented policies in other similar cases. In addition, the framework makes it possible to evaluate scenarios and predict future conditions. Also, it can evaluate the impact of different policies on basin’s water resources, society, economy and the environment and be a confident base for future research.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Water resources carrying capacity
  • Pressure-Support-State Framework
  • SWAT
  • Zarrineh-roud basin
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