مدیریت اقتصادی- محیط زیستی اراضی زارعی با تأکید بر کاهش برداشت آب زیرزمینی در شرایط عدم قطعیت بارندگی: مطالعه موردی منطقه قره‌طغان نکا

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری.

چکیده

خشکسالی در­ سال­های اخیر و استخراج مستمر آب از طریق حفر چاه­های عمیق منجر به افت سطح آب زیرزمینی شده است. بنابراین لازم است به‌منظور مدیریت مصرف آب­ زیرزمینی برای به­کارگیری پایدار منابع آب و همچنین حفظ تعادل محیط زیستی در این منبع مهم، تحقیقات و سیاست‌های مناسبی صورت گیرد. در مطالعه حاضر به­منظور استفاده بهینه از آب زیرزمینی منطقه زراعی قره طغان نکا، از رویکرد تحلیل تصمیم­گیری چندمعیاره تصادفی در شرایط عدم قطعیت در بارندگی استفاده شده است. داده­های مورد نیاز به­صورت کتابخانه­ای جمع­آوری شد و جهت برآورد نتایج از نرم­افزار GAMS استفاده گردید. برمبنای نتایج، افزایش احتمال بارندگی تا 99 درصد منجر به افزایش سود ناخالص زراعی در منطقه گردید. به­گونه­ای که در سناریوهای احتمال 95 و 99 درصد بارندگی نسبت به احتمال 90 درصد، سود ناخالص به­ترتیب حدود 1/44 و 4/13 درصد افزایش داشت. در این شرایط میزان برداشت آب زیرزمینی در سناریوهای مختلف، بدون تغییر ولی سهم آب زیرزمینی از کل آب مصرفی با کاهش مواجه شد. در مقابل، در شرایط کاهش احتمال بارندگی به 99 درصد نسبت به احتمال 90 درصد، سود ناخالص الگوی کشت پیشنهادی، حدود 33/3 درصد کاهش یافت. در این شرایط میزان برداشت آب زیرزمینی نیز به دلیل پایین بودن سطح آب زیرزمینی منطقه و نامناسب بودن آن به لحاظ شوری، در حدود 32/8 درصد کاهش نشان داد. ولی سهم مصرف آب زیرزمینی نسبت به شرایط موجود و در تمامی سناریوهای مذکور، ثابت ماند. لذا با توجه به سهم بالای آب زیرزمینی در کشاورزی منطقه، همچنین افزایش زیان کشاورزان و احتمال افت سطح آب­های زیرزمینی در سال­های کم بارش، پیشنهاد می­شود برای مدیریت بهینه و بهبود شرایط محیط­زیستی آب­ زیرزمینی منطقه و همچنین حمایت از وضعیت درآمدی کشاورزان، شرایط مناسب برای استفاده از آب­های سطحی در منطقه مورد مطالعه فراهم گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Economic-Environmental Management of Agricultural Lands with Emphasis on Reducing Groundwater Abstraction under Rainfall Uncertainty: A Case Study of Qareh Toghan Region of Neka

نویسندگان [English]

  • Somayeh Shirzadi Laskookalayeh
  • Fatemeh Kashiri Kolaei
Assistant Professor, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University Sari.
چکیده [English]

In recent years drought and the continuous extraction of water by digging deep wells have led to a drop in groundwater levels. Therefore, in order to manage groundwater consumption for sustainable use of water resources and also to maintain the environmental balance of this important resource, appropriate research and policies are needed. In the present study, in order to make optimal use of groundwater in Qareh Toghan region of Neka, the stochastic multi-criteria decision analysis approach has been used under rainfall uncertainty condition. The required data were collected as a library and GAMS software was used to estimate the results. Based on the results, by increasing the probability of rainfall up to 99%, an increase in gross margin in the region would happen so that in scenarios of 95% and 99% probability of rainfall, the gross margin was increased by about 1.44 and 4.13%, respectively, compared to the condition of 90% rainfall probability. Under these conditions, the amount of groundwater abstraction in various scenarios remained unchanged but the share of groundwater in the total water consumption decreased. In contrast, in the case of reducing the probability of rainfall to 99% compared to the probability of 90%, the gross margin of the proposed cropping pattern decreased by about 33.3%. In this condition, the amount of groundwater abstraction decreased by about 32.8% due to low groundwater level in the region and its unsuitability in terms of salinity. However, the share of groundwater consumption in relation to the existing conditions and in all the mentioned scenarios remained constant. Therefore, due to the high share of groundwater in agriculture in the region, as well as increasing farmers' losses and the possibility of declining groundwater levels in low rainfall years, it is suggested to provide suitable plans for using surface water in the study area for optimal management, and improving the environmental conditions of groundwater in the region while supporting the income status of farmers.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Groundwater
  • Multi-criteria
  • Neka
  • optimization
  • Rainfall
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