برآورد مولفه های بیلان جریان آب‌زیرزمینی و بهبود خطای آن با استفاده از روش تاگوچی (مطالعه موردی: آبخوان مه‌ولات)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه عمران، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه تربت حیدریه، تربت حیدریه، ایران

2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی آب، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

3 استادیار، گروه مهندسی مکانیک، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه تربت حیدریه، تربت حیدریه، ایران.

چکیده

تهیه مدل مفهومی جریان آب زیرزمینی به عنوان مهمترین گام در مدل‌سازی جریان آب زیرزمینی، یکی از اصلی‌ترین اقدامات در فرآیند مدیریت درست منابع آب زیرزمینی، بخصوص در نواحی خشک که بیشتر مصرف متوجه منابع آب زیرزمینی است، می‌باشد. تهیه بیلان منابع آب زیرزمینی به عنوان جزء اساسی مدل مفهومی جریان آب زیرزمینی با مشکلاتی از قبیل کمبود و ناهمگنی اطلاعات به علت نبود شبکه پایش مناسب مکانی-زمانی همراه است. در تحقیق حاضر سعی شده با استفاده از داده‌های کمکی، ابزارهای ریاضی- آماری و قابلیت‌های نوین سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی از جمله تحلیلگر مکانی زمین‌آمار، روش‌هایی جهت برآورد هر چه دقیق‌تر مولفه‌های بیلان ارائه شود. این روش‌ها در آبخوان مه‌ولات که از آبخوان‌های بحرانی کشور بوده، برای سال‌های آبی 1380 الی 1391 پیاده‌سازی گردید. خطای متوسط معادله بیلان با استفاده از روش‌های پیشنهادی تحقیق حاضر، 26/9 درصد مجموع مولفه‌های ورودی‌ بیلان محاسبه گردید که با توجه به عدم قطعیت‌ زیاد مولفه‌های بیلان آب زیرزمینی نشان از کارایی روش‌های پیشنهادی در تدقیق مولفه‌های بیلان دارد. در ادامه، با توجه به وجود خطا در سطح اطلاعات موجود، با در نظر گرفتن ضرایبی اصلاحی برای مولفه‌های موجود در معادلات بیلان در مقیاس سالانه، در یک فرآیند بهینه‌یابی با استفاده از روش طراحی آزمایش تاگوچی، مجموع قدرمطلق خطاهای موجود در معادله بیلان آب زیرزمینی مه‌ولات کمینه شدند. خروجی این محاسبات، مقادیر بهینه ضرایب اصلاحی در دامنه تغییرات منظور شده برای آن‌ها بود. پس از کمینه‌سازی مجموع قدرمطلق خطاها، این خطا با حدود 97 درصد کاهش از 227 به 115 میلیون مترمکعب تقلیل یافت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimation of Groundwater Flow Balance Components and Its Error Improvement Using Taguchi Method (Case Study: Mahvelat Aquifer)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ehsan Bahrami Jovein 1
  • Amin Ghayouri Motlagh 2
  • Masoud Goharimanesh 3
1 Assistant professor Dept. of Civil Engineering University of Torbat Heydarieh
2 Graduated M.Sc Water Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Torbat Heydarieh, Torbat Heydarieh, Iran
چکیده [English]

Preparation of the conceptual model of groundwater flow, as an essential step in groundwater flow modeling, is one of the primary measures in properly managing groundwater resources, especially in arid areas where most consumption is directed to groundwater resources. Preparation of groundwater balance as an essential component of the conceptual model of groundwater flow is associated with problems such as lack and heterogeneity of information due to lack of proper spatial-temporal monitoring network. In the present study, we tried to provide methods for estimating the groundwater balance equation's components as accurately as possible by using auxiliary data, mathematical-statistical tools, and new capabilities of GIS, such as a geostatistical analyst. These methods were implemented in the Mahvelat aquifer, one of Iran's critical aquifers, for 2001-2012 (12 Years). The balance equation's mean error was calculated to be 26.9% of the total components of the balanced input using the proposed methods of the present study. Then, due to the significant amount of error in the available information, by considering the correction coefficients for the balance equation's components on an annual scale, the absolute value of the errors was minimized using the Taguchi method. The output of these calculations was the optimal values of the corrective coefficients. The result showed that the error was reduced by 97%; from 227 to 115 million cubic meters.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Balance Equation
  • Conceptual model
  • GIS
  • Mahvelat aquifer
  • Taguchi method
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