پیش‌بینی تغییرات مساحت دریاچه بختگان و طشک با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره‌ای و عوامل اقلیمی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه عمران آب، دانشکده عمران معماری و هنر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی( ره )، قزوین، ایران

چکیده

تداوم خشکسالی در سطوح مختلف باعث خشکی رودخانه‌ها و تالاب‌ها می‌شود. در این تحقیق با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره Landsat، تغییرات مساحت دریاچه‌ بختگان و طشک در طول سال‌های ۱۹۸۶ تا ۲۰۱۹ میلادی بررسی شده ‌است. همچنین، بر مبنای شاخص بارش استاندارد (SPI) اثر بارش بر مساحت دریاچه‌ و مجموع جریان ورودی به آن بررسی‌شد. در ادامه با تولید نقشه‌های کاربری اراضی، تغییرات کاربری اراضی در سطح حوضه دریاچه بختگان و طشک بررسی ‌شد. به‌علاوه، مدلی برای پیش‎بینی مساحت دریاچه‌ با استفاده از مساحت دریاچه‌ در سال گذشته، مجموع جریان ورودی و عمق بارش سالانه بر روی دریاچه ارائه شد. نتایج نشان داد که در دوره مطالعاتی، کمترین مساحت دریاچه بختگان و طشک در سال ۲۰۱۱ برابر با 17/038 کیلومتر مربع بوده که در مقایسه با حداکثر مساحت دریاچه در سال 1993 کاهش %98 را نشان‌می‌دهد. بررسی SPI در سطح حوضه دریاچه بختگان و طشک در مقیاس ۱۲ ماهه در ماه شهریور نشان ‌می‌دهد که شاخص خشکسالی هواشناسی به طور مستقیم تغییرات سطح دریاچه‌ را تحت تاثیر قرار می‌دهد اما در سال ۲۰۰۶ تا ۲۰۱۲ جریان ورودی به دریاچه‌ تحت تاثیر گسترش فعالیت انسانی در سطح حوضه به شدت کاهش یافته و در این دوره روند تغییرات سطح دریاچه‌ مطابق با تغییرات شاخص SPI نیست. نتایج حاصل از مدل پیش‌‎بینی نشان می‌دهد مقدار ضریب تعیین برای نتایج حاصل از مدل شبکه عصبی و نتایج حاصل از تصاویر ماهواره‌ای برابر با 0/72 است. در نتیجه با استفاده از مدل می‌توان تغییرات دریاچه‌ را با دقت قابل قبولی پیش‌‎بینی کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Forecasting the Area of the Bakhtegan and Tashk Lake Using Remote Sensing and Climatic Factors

نویسندگان [English]

  • Bahram Saghafian 1
  • Homa KhanAhmadi Bafghi 1
  • Peyman Daneshkar Arasteh 2
1 Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Architecture and Art, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Water Sciences and Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
چکیده [English]

Recurring droughts at various intensity leads to decline in streamflow and wetland area. In this study, using Landsat satellite images, temporal changes in the area of the Bakhtegan and Tashk lake from 1986 to 2019 were investigated. Also, based on the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), the effect of precipitation falling on the lake area as well as the total inflow to the lake were studied. Then, by generating land-use maps, land-use changes in Bakhtegan and Tashk basin area were analyzed. In addition, a model for forecasting lake area (of next year) on the basis of lake area, total inflow, and annual precipitation falling on the lake basin area associated with the previous year was presented. The results showed that in the study period, the minimum lake area occurred in 2011 and was equal to 17.038 square kilometers, which shows a decrease of 98% compared to the maximum area corresponding to the year 1993. Furthermore, 12-month SPI in Bakhtegan and Tashk Lake basin indicated that the meteorological drought index directly affects the changes of the lake area. However, from 2006 to 2012, the inflow to the lake has severely decreased due to the increasing human interventions within the basin such that, during this period, lake surface area does not strongly respond to SPI variations. The results of the forecast model showed that the coefficient of determination between neural network model output (lake area) with observed lake area corresponding to satellite images was equal to 0.72. As a result, the forecast model could acceptably predict the lake area.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Bakhtegan and Tashk
  • Standard Precipitation Index (SPI)
  • Remote Sensing
  • Land Use Change
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