تعیین سهم اثرات تغییر اقلیم و عوامل انسانی بر کاهش رواناب با تحلیل حساسیت نسبت به محل نقاط شکست آماری در سری زمانی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده مهندسی عمران دانشگاه صنعتی خواجه نصیرالدین طوسی

2 دانشیار دانشکده مهندسی عمران- دانشگاه خواجه نصیرالدین طوسی

چکیده

در این مقاله، تعیین سهم اثر اقلیم و اثر مستقیم عوامل انسانی بر کاهش رواناب بر اساس سه رویکرد رگرسیون خطی، کشسانی اقلیمی مبتنی بر فرضیه بودیکو و رویکرد تثبیت- تغییر مبتنی بر شبیه‌سازی ماهانه بیلان آب انجام می‌شود. این رویکردها عمدتاً مبتنی بر تعیین نقطه شکست آماری در سری زمانی جریان هستند. نقطه شکست آماری نشان‌دهنده زمانی است که از آن زمان به بعد، تغییر معنی‌داری در ویژگی‌های آماری دبی جریان رخ می‌دهد. در این مقاله، با تحلیل حساسیت نتایج نسبت به محل نقاط شکست در سری زمانی رواناب، تأثیر شناسایی این نقاط بر تعیین مقادیر سهم‌های یاد شده بررسی می‌شود. کارایی رویکردهای بیان شده در حوضه بالادست سد زاینده‌رود که دستخوش تغییرات انسان‌ساخت قابل توجهی مانند افزایش بی‌رویه سطح زیر کشت و انتقال آب بین حوضه‌ای بوده است، مورد ارزیابی قرار می‌گیرد. در رویکرد تثبیت- تغییر، مدل بیلان آب برای دوره‌ زمانی 1984-1976 واسنجی و صحت‌سنجی می‌شود. نتایج تحلیل حساسیت نسبت به محل نقاط شکست و بررسی سری زمانی تغییرات سطح زیرکشت به دست آمده از تصاویر ماهواره‌ای و سری زمانی دبی انتقال آب بین حوضه‌ای نشان می‌دهد که در نظر گرفتن سال 2006 به عنوان سال رخداد نقطه شکست در سری زمانی رواناب، تخمین‌های واقع‌بینانه‌تری از مقادیر سهم اثرات عوامل انسانی و اقلیمی بر کاهش رواناب (به ترتیب، بیش از 90 درصد و

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff Reduction with Sensitivity Analysis on Time Series Breakpoints

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamid Ghasemi 1
  • Najmeh Mahjourimajd 2
1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد
2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Civil Engineering, KN Toosi University of Technology
چکیده [English]

In this paper, the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff Reduction (ICHRR) are quantified using three approaches based on regression, climate elasticity and water balance models. These approaches are based on finding the location of the occurring an abrupt statistical change (breakpoint) in runoff time series. In this paper, the effect of locating the breakpoint(s) on the mentioned quantified impacts is studied through sensitivity analysis. The performance of the mentioned three approaches is evaluated by applying them on Zayandehrud river discharge which is subjected to significant human induced changes such as dramatic increase of the area of agricultural lands and inter-basin water transfer projects. The water balance model is calibrated and verified for the period of 1976 to 1984. The sensitivity analysis shows that among several years with potential of the occurring a breakpoint, considering the year of 2006 as the breakpoint, the estimated values of ICHRR are more realistic. These results are in accordance with the observations including the time series of climate variables, agricultural land areas and inter-basin water transfer discharge. Also, if the impact of inter-basin water transfer on increasing runoff is removed from the runoff time series, the impact of climate change on runoff reduction based on all the three approaches is mostly close to zero. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • change point in time series
  • Runoff reduction
  • Water Balance Model
  • Inter-basin water transfer
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