تحلیل قابلیت اطمینان تغییرات تراکم شبکه آبراهه ای حوضه آبریز دریاچه ارومیه با استفاده از روش احتمالاتی FORM

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

زمین شناسی، علوم پایه، دانشگاه پیام نور / عضو هیات علمی

چکیده

 
اکوسیستم دریاچه ارومیه، در سال‏های اخیر با بحران کاهش فزاینده سطح آب به دلیل از دست رفتن منابع تغذیه کننده آب سطحی خود روبرو بوده است. در این پژوهش به منظور بررسی تاب­آوری ناحیه­ای در حوضه آبریز دریاچه ارومیه، در مقابل تخریب تراکم شبکه آبراهه­ای، اقدام به توسعه ماتریس تابع عملکرد در روش احتمالاتی مرتبه اول قابلیت اطمینان (FORM) شده­ است. پایه محاسبات در محیط برنامه‏نویسی پایتون بر اساس تغییرات لایه تجمع جریان، به عنوان عامل مهم تغذیه آب سطحی دریاچه ارومیه می­باشد. تهیه لایه تجمع جریان، بر اساس مدل رقومی ارتفاع 30 متری سنجنده Aster  در محیط سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی و ملاک تغییرات آن بر مبنای لایه­های تراکم شبکه آبراهه­ای مختلف و با آستانه­های ترتیب توانی معین، در روش استخراج خودکار مسیر جریان طبیعی بوده است. تابع عملکرد در روش FORM با تخمین انحراف استاندارد، میانگین و همبستگی خطی، بین دو دسته تراکم شبکه جریان، با آستانه­های 100، 300 و 1000 و همچنین 1000، 3000 و 10000 و به صورت کسر دو مجموعه، نقاط مختصاتی تهیه شد. نتایج حاکی از آن است احتمال شکست در حوضه آبریز، بدون احتساب محیط دریاچه، بین دو رقم 28 تا 72 درصد متغیر است. برای نوار مرزی نمایش آسیب‏پذیری دریاچه، کم­ترین تاب­آوری در بخش‌های غربی، شمال غربی و جنوبی است. آسیب‏پذیری با تخریب شبکه آبراهه­ای مطابق با روش FORM در بیشترین مقدار خود با رقم 86 درصد در محدوده میانه غربی مساحت دریاچه رخ می­دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Reliability Analysis of Stream Network Density Changes in Urmia Lake Catchment Area Using FORM Probabilistic Method

نویسنده [English]

  • Homayoun Moghimi
Geology Dept., Basic seince, Payame Noor University/ Academic member
چکیده [English]

In this study, in order to investigate the resilience of the area in the catchment of Lake Urmia, in contrast to the destruction of the density of the stream network, a performance function matrix was developed in the probabilistic First Order Reliability Method (FORM). The basis for calculations in the Python programming environment was the changes in the flow accumulation layer, as an important factor in the surface recharge of Lake Urmia. Preparation of flow accumulation layer, based on the digital elevation model of 30 meter’s altitude of Aster Landsat satellite in the geographic information system environment, and the criterion for its changes, according to the different layers of the stream network density and with certain thresholds of sequential power, has been the natural flow path in the automatic extraction method. The performance function in the FORM method was prepared by estimating the standard deviation, mean and linear correlation between the two categories of current stream network density, with thresholds of 100, 300 and 1000, as well as 1000, 3000 and 10000, and by deducting two sets of coordinate points. The results show that the failure probability in the catchment area, without taking into account the lake environment, varies between 28% and 72%. For the boundary strip, the lake's vulnerability display is the least resilient in the western, northwestern and southern parts. Vulnerability occurs with the destruction of the stream network in accordance with the FORM method in its maximum value with 86% in the western part of Lake area.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • FORM Method
  • reliability analysis
  • Urmia Lake
  • River Density
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