ارزیابی شدت اثر تغییر اقلیم بر منابع آب زیرزمینی دشت ورامین با استفاده از شاخص NISTOR

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری تخصصی، گروه مهندسی عمران، واحد شهر قدس، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی عمران، واحد شهر قدس، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

3 اُستاد، گروه مهندسی عمران، واحد شهر قدس، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

4 اُستادیار، گروه مهندسی عمران، واحد شهر قدس، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

 
هدف از این مطالعه بررسی شدت اثر تغییر اقلیم با استفاده از مدل‌های گروه CMIP5 تحت سناریوهای انتشار RCP بر منابع آب زیرزمینی دشت ورامین می‌باشد که خروجی این مدل­ها توسط نرم­افزار  LARS-WGریزمقیاس و واسنجی شد. برای این منظور از دوره (۲۰۰۵-۱۹۸۹) به عنوان دوره پایه جهت انتخاب مدل مناسب منطقه و دوره (۲۰۵۰-۲۰۲۱) جهت بررسی شاخص NISTOR در آینده استفاده گردید. نتایج نشان داد که مدل EC-EARTH در شبیه‌سازی دما و بارش در منطقه مطالعاتی از سری CMIP5 تحت سه سناریوی RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و  RCP8.5 برای دوره آینده عملکرد بالایی دارد. بطور میانگین دمای متوسط در منطقه مطالعاتی، تحت سناریوهای خوشبینانه و حد واسط به ترتیب RCP2.6 و RCP4.5، افزایش 1 تا 2/1 درجه سانتیگراد را نسبت به دوره پایه پیش­بینی ‌کرد در حالیکه همین افزایش دما بر اساس بدبینانه‌ترین سناریو یعنی RCP8.5 در دوره ۲۰۵۰ -۲۰۲۰ بطور متوسط افزایش حدود 5/1 درجه سانتیگراد نسبت به دوره پایه پیش‌بینی گردید. همچنین در دوره‌های آتی، افزایش بارش در فصل بهار و کاهش بارش در فصل پاییز مشاهده گردید. بطور کلی سناریوی RCP4.5 بیشتر از دو سناریوی دیگر افزایش بارش سالانه در 30 سال آینده نسبت به دوره پایه را نشان داد. همچنین نتایج ماتریس استنتاجی NISTOR با درنظر گرفتن بارش مؤثر و شاخص اقلیمی De-Martone نشان داد که در هر سه سناریو شدت اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر روی منابع آب زیررمینی دشت ورامین در سه دهه آینده قابل توجه (شدید) می‌باشد که نشان‌دهنده کاهش مقدار تغذیه منابع آب زیرزمینی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment the Intensity of the Effect of Climate Change on Groundwater Resources of Varamin plain using NISTOR index

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamid reza Azizi 1
  • Hossein Ebrahimi 2
  • Hossein Mohamad vali samani 3
  • Vida Khaki 4
1 Phd Student, Department of Civil engineering, Shahr-e-Qods Branch, Islamic Azad University,Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Civil engineering, Shahr-e-Qods Branch, Islamic Azad University,Tehran, Iran. Email: Ebrahimi165@yahoo.com
3 Professor, Department of Civil engineering, Shahr-e-Qods Branch, Islamic Azad University,Tehran, Iran.
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil engineering, Shahr-e-Qods Branch, Islamic Azad University,Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The aim of this study was to investigate the Intensity of the effect of climate change using CMIP5 group models under RCP scenarios on groundwater resources in Varamin plain. The output of these models was downscaled by LARS-WG .For this purpose, the period(1989-2005)was used as a base period to select the regional model and the period 2050-2021 to study the NISTOR index in the future. The results showed that the EC-EARTH model has a high performance in simulating temperature and precipitation in the study area of CMIP5 series under three scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the next period. On average, the average temperature in the study area, under the scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, respectively, predicted an increase of 1 to 1.2 ° C compared to the base period, while the same temperature increase based on the most pessimistic scenario That is, RCP8.5 in the period 2050-2020, an average increase of about 1.5 degrees was predicted compared to the base period. Also in future periods, an increase in precipitation was observed in the early months of the year to late spring and a decrease in precipitation in autumn. Overall, the RCP4.5 scenario showed slightly more annual precipitation increase over the next 30 years than the base period over the other two scenarios. Also, the results of the NISTOR index, considering the effective rainfall, and De-martone index showed in all three scenarios, the intensity of effects of climate change on the groundwater resources of Varamin plain in the future is significant

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • LARS-WG
  • Varamin plain
  • Groundwater
  • NISTOR
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