Evaluation of Variability of Climate with applying Statistical Methods in Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Center (ASMERC), P.O. Box.14965-114, Tehran, Iran, Phone No:

2 B.S. Applied Mathematics

Abstract

Observations show that the global surface air temperature has risen by 0.6 during th 20th century. Global warming causes extreme events and bad weather in the near term. The loss of seasonal distinctions, larger fluctuation in intra-day temperature and large fluctuations in precipitations, and increasing of frequency and magnitude of the extreme events may be due to global warming. World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC)  and the other responsible groups began to develop  guidelines related to detection of climate change by applying statistical  methods.
The purpose of this paper is to present a few simple and complex statistical models taking into account the effects of climatic change. In addition, the result of a few related projects which evaluated climate variability by statistical methods in the country, has been presented.
It has been shown, there are a number of changes including trend, jump, unusual fluctuation, changes in distribution of elements and also changes in extreme indices including heat waves, diurnal temperature range, growing length season ,ext.
 

Keywords

References

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Iran-Water Resources Research
Volume 1, Issue 2
July 2005
Pages 61-73

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History

  • Receive Date: 25 January 2004
  • Accept Date: 08 May 2005

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